GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6877 |
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"Hindcasting the last decade: calibrating a novel, recursive dynamic land-use explicit CGE model " by Cantele, Matthew, Pham Van Ha, Payal Bal, Brendan Wintle and Thomas Kompas Abstract Equilibrium models solve constrained optimization problems and have long been used within trade analyses to examine the potential impacts of specific policy changes. More recently they have been incorporated into the foundation of process-based integrated assessment models. Within this study we develop a novel, recursive dynamic land-use explicit CGE model using the most recent economic and land-use data available to build confidence in the model’s ability to predict land-use change under different socioeconomic trajectories. We find that land-use as predicted by the model is highly sensitive to the choice of land supply elasticity as well as magnitude of labor supply shock. The considerable degree of data collection and harmonization coupled with a series of dynamic runs across the 2011 to 2020 period allowed us to test this model against the historical record and gain new insight into roles of select parameters and exogenous variable specification. Our fully calibrated model robustly simulates land-use over a 9 year period given demographic and GDP drivers. The current study highlights the importance of conducting hindcasting runs in order to compare model outputs with the historical record. This work also serves as the proof-of-concept for a new economic land-use model capable of simulating long-term paths of economic growth and associated changes in land-use. |
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- Baseline development - Calibration and parameter estimation - Dynamic modeling - Land use - GTAP Data Base and extensions |
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Public Access  Paper (1.6 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
