GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6888 |
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"The economic impacts of low-carbon transition in Asia: NDC and Net Zero Transition with International Carbon Market in Asia" by Kim, Yong-Gun, Tae Yong Jung, Jongwoo Moon, Jaewan Kim and Gemma Estrada Abstract This study examines the economic impacts of low-carbon transition in developing Asian countries using a global dynamic recursive CGE model, focusing on achieving Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets and reaching Net Zero. The model uses GTAP 10 Power database, which sets seven aggregate regions and 19 sectors. The analysis considers four scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), NDC Extension, Net Zero Transition, and Orderly Net Zero transition. Results show that low-carbon transition mildly decreases economic indicators, but significantly reduces GHG emissions in Asia. The Orderly Net Zero scenario, which introduces an international carbon market in Asia, has generally positive economic effects, although with mixed results across regions. Fossil-fuel-related and carbon-intensive industries face significant losses, while renewable energy sectors benefit substantially. Coal is the most negatively affected sector. Sensitivity analyses on learning rates and elasticities of substitutions show that higher learning rates for renewable energy technology reduce economic losses, while smaller elasticity of substitution parameters lead to larger economic losses but mixed employment results. The study concludes that economic losses from low-carbon transition are not significant in developing countries, contrary to the perceived misperception. Orderly Net Zero transition, defined as an international carbon market in Asia, yields better results overall. A substantial sectoral reallocation of production, investment, and employment occurs during the transition, emphasizing the need for Just Transition policies and social safety nets to address challenges in carbon-intensive sectors. This includes financial and technological support, re-education and training, and addressing stranded assets. |
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- Model extension/development - Climate change policy - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Economic development - Economic growth - Labor market issues - Asia (East) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 6888 (489.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s) GTAP Resource 6888 [presentation] (4.5 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
