GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #6966 |
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"Comparative Assessment of the Potential Impact of joining WTO and Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Ethiopia economy" by Zeleke, Abay and Nobuhiro Hosoe Abstract Abstract Following Ethiopia's signing of the AfCFTA in 2018 and its ongoing negotiations to join the WTO, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using a world trade computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the potential impacts of joining these trade agreements on Ethiopia's trade, output, and welfare. The result of our policy experiment, which includes scenarios involving the reduction of tariff and non-tariff measures, reveals that both AfCFTA and WTO accession would have positive effects on Ethiopia's welfare, with WTO membership expected to bring more significant benefits. On the one hand, AfCFTA membership would significantly increase Ethiopian imports from AfCFTA regions while decreasing imports from non-AfCFTA regions; on the other hand, it would significantly boost Ethiopian exports to both AfCFTA and non-AfCFTA regions. By contrast, WTO membership would significantly increase Ethiopia’s imports from Asia and decrease those from East Africa; it would increase exports to all regions, especially Europe, Asia, and the Rest of the World. In terms of industrial output, while these two trade deals would largely favor agriculture and the meat and livestock sector and harm many manufacturing sectors (especially the light manufacturing sector), the impact of WTO accession on the Ethiopian economy would be overwhelmingly larger. |
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- Bridging CGE and new quantitative trade (NQT) literature |
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Public Access  Paperforpresentation (550.8 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
