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GTAP Resource #6978

"Reconstructing the 1816 year without summer to assess the resilience of today’s global food system: an interdisciplinary modelling approach "
by Boysen, Ole, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Stefan Brönnimann, Carsten Marohn and Christoph Müller


Abstract
The eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815, in conjunction with other circumstances, caused a severe and global climate anomaly. The year following turned out to be extremely cold and brought heavy rain to some and draught to other parts of the world. “The year without summer”, as it was nicknamed in Europe and North America, saw very poor plant growth and poor harvests which, in combination with other factors, led to hardship, extreme food crisis and starvation in various regions of the world, including China, Germany, India and the US.
Undoubtedly, advances in research and development in agriculture, transportation and other fields as well as globalization have changed the global food system tremendously since then. Nevertheless, regional specialisation and reliance on global availability of food supply and trade put into question whether today’s global food system would also be resilient against such climate shocks which are of global nature: How resilient is today’s global food system with respect to such extreme climate events? To what extent would it be capable of compensating the widespread harvest failures? How fragile is national food security with respect to protectionist trade policy reactions?
To shed light on these questions, we combine global climate, crop yield and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for simulating the impact of a climate anomaly nowadays that is comparable to the one observed in 1816.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version:
Created: Boysen-Urban, K. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Boysen-Urban, K. (4/15/2023)
Visits: 281
- Climate impacts
- Natural disasters
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security


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