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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #6989

"Ex-post assessment of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) effects in Africa"
by Sall, Leysa Maty and Fousseini Traore


Abstract
Free-trade agreements are important features of international trade and African market integration. While the AfCFTA entered in force in 2021, clarity on what role Regional Economic Communities (RECs) will have in AfCFTA implementation is required. The agreement clearly acknowledges the RECs Free Trade Areas (FTAs) as building blocks towards the establishment of the AfCFTA. However, some weaknesses have been acknowledged including the high number of regional economic communities coupled with the problem of overlapping memberships in these regional economic groupings which bring about coordination problems. This paper provides a rigorous ex-post assessment of long-run effects of past regional trade agreements in Africa to see how pertinent these blocks are to promote intra African trade. The focus is on the following main groups which are UEMOA, ECOWAS, EAC, CEMAC, SADC, TFTA and COMESA. We use a general equilibrium framework based on structural gravity models to estimate the effects of RTAs on trade with three main contributions: i) it addresses the potential endogeneity of RTAs; ii) it includes intra-national trade flows to capture trade-diversion from domestic sales; iii) it considers the Jensen inequality which can create biased estimations if omitted. The analysis also allows for potential non-linear and phasing-in effects of RTAs.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Version: 1
Created: Sall, L. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Sall, L. (2/26/2024)
Visits: 350
- Econometric methods
- Africa (Central)
- Africa (East)
- Africa (North)
- Africa (Southern)
- Africa (West)


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