GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7000 |
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"Exploring the role of agricultural trade in the future of nature and people" by David Leclere, Charlotte Janssens, Amanda Palazzo, Samantha Hill, Esther Boere and Petr Havlik Abstract Agricultural trade is a driver of biodiversity loss, and future trade might be deeply affected by the food system sustainability transition needed to reach ambitious goals for biodiversity. While increasing market integration was historically a strong focus of trade governance, interventions towards greener international supply chains are gaining interest. To explore uncertainties in the co-evolution of agricultural trade and biodiversity in the coming decades, we used the GLOBIOM partial equilibrium model of the agricultural, forestry and bioenergy sectors to quantify up to 2050 a set of scenarios designed to explore (1) how agricultural trade products could be affected by efforts to achieve ambitious biodiversity goals and (2) how alternative future trade governance could hinder or contribute to progress towards ambitious biodiversity goals and the broader sustainable development agenda? We contrast a baseline scenario to alternative scenarios based on combinations of efforts towards bending the curve of biodiversity loss (increased conservation and restoration efforts, sustainable intensification and demand-side interventions on waste and diets) and international trade governance assumptions (exacerbated liberalization, frictions and reconfigurations, trade greening). The GLOBIOM projections are analyzed in terms of socioeconomic (agricultural value added, number of people at risk of hunger) and environmental (species extinction risk, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land use change) impacts, as well as changes in main international trade patterns. Preliminary results suggest a potential for greener trade to contribute towards ambitious goals for biodiversity and the broader sustainability agenda, but also that reaching these goals might limit lead to reduced future developments in agricultural international trade flows and economic output, in particular through demand-side measures. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Ecosystem services and biodiversity - Land use - Trade and the environment - Food prices and food security - Supply chains |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
