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GTAP Resource #7002

"Industrialization and Economic Diversification – Keys to Unlocking the Full Potential of the AfCFTA – A Case Study for Central Africa"
by Carrico, Caitlyn

While natural resource abundance can provide opportunities for economic growth, natural resource dependency is often associated with stagnated growth (Badeep et al., 2017). Countries across Africa have faced the so-called natural resources curse, with natural resources rents accounting for over 7% of GDP across Sub-Saharan Africa, with over 4.6% from Oil and Gas, 1.8% from Forest products, and 0.9% from Mining, figures only surpassed globally by Oil and Gas rents in MENA (World Bank, WDI).
Within the African continent, the level of dependance on natural resources and, inversely, the level of economic diversification is variable across regions. Measuring output across subregions from the GTAP Database (Aguiar et al., 2019), Central Africa is the subregion with the highest production dependence on extraction, accounting for 26% of total output, compared with an average of 10% across the rest of the continent. Further, manufacturing output is the lowest amongst subregions, accounting for 14% of total output, in contrast to an average of 25% across all other subregions.
The AfCFTA is a key opportunity for Central African governments to build upon regional integration strategies, aligning their national trade strategies as well as industrial strategies, to enhance intra-regional trade as well as trade with continental partners. However, only by achieving the objectives of the Douala Consensus will Central African states be able to unlock the full potential of the AfCFTA.
In this paper, we assess the impact of economic diversification and industrialization in combination with the implementation of the AfCFTA for Central Africa with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation of the AfCFTA.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2023 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 26th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Bordeaux, France)
Date: 2023
Created: Carrico, C. (4/15/2023)
Updated: Carrico, C. (4/15/2023)
Visits: 341
- Economic development
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Africa (Central)

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