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GTAP Resource #7187

"The implications of a global dietary shift on Australia’s economic and environmental sustainability: a model-based general equilibrium analysis"
by Lu, Yingying, Ray Marcos-Martinez, Michalis Hadjikakou, Duy Nong, Trang Tran, George Verikios and Heinz Schandl

Dietary changes, particularly shifts toward reduced ruminant meat consumption, have the potential to improve food security and health outcomes and mitigate climate change. However, the net emissions benefits and economic consequences of widespread dietary shifts are contested, with concerns around rebound effects, spillovers into non-food sectors, and economic risks. Australia's heavy reliance on agricultural exports, with around 70% of its production value consumed overseas, makes it particularly vulnerable to potential disruptions from global dietary shifts. Additionally, its significant beef exports (around 78% of production) add further sensitivity to changes in global meat demand. We investigate the potential impacts of global diet shifts on Australia's economy and emissions footprint, in the context of its ambitious climate mitigation commitments including net-zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis applies a computable general equilibrium approach using the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM-Food) to explore potential implications of diet shifts in Australia. We simulate policy scenarios including global carbon prices aligned with a 1.5°C emissions pathway, combined with global dietary shifts, regionally targeted dietary shifts, and a dietary change solely within Australia. The results suggest that global carbon prices needed to achieve a 1.5°C emissions target could result in Australian agricultural output declines particularly for livestock production. While shifts in diets only within Australia have a marginal impact on the agricultural system. Reduced demand for ruminant meat in Australian export destinations can lead to significant reductions in domestic livestock production. These findings highlight the challenges and potential trade-offs Australia faces in balancing emissions reduction goals with agricultural production and demonstrate the complex interplay between global dietary trends and national economic and environmental priorities.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2024 Conference Paper
Status: Not published
By/In: Presented during the 27th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Fort Collins, Colorado, USA)
Date: 2024
Version: 0
Created: Lu, Y. (4/11/2024)
Updated: Lu, Y. (6/4/2024)
Visits: 161
- Climate change policy
- Sustainable development
- Domestic policy analysis
- Food prices and food security
- Supply chains
- Dynamic modeling
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- Econometric methods
- Oceania

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