GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7516 |
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"Can more ambitious NDCs also lead to economic growth?" by Lanzi, Elisa, Jean Chateau, Coline Pouille and Max Bohringer Abstract Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are at the heart of the Paris Agreement, and pivotal for transforming global climate goals into co-ordinated, concrete actions. Countries are due to put forward new NDCs in 2025. While current efforts fall far short of what is needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s goals within reach, the next NDCs provide a critical opportunity to produce the step-change needed for the world to get on track to reach net-zero and build resilience to worsening climate impacts. Yet, there is resistance to calls for more ambitious NDCs, for a variety of reasons including the perception that ambitious climate action may hinder economic growth and the competitiveness of strategic sectors. To ramp up ambition, governments need to feel confident that their national climate goals can be financed and delivered without harming their economies and development trajectories. This paper analyses the link between higher climate ambition and economic growth in the current economic outlook, comparing two key scenarios, one reflecting current policies, and one reflecting more ambitious NDCs, which in the long run would imply a pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These scenarios are analysed with the global multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (ENV-Linkages). Overall, the paper provides a quantitative analysis supporting higher ambition in on climate mitigation, including in the upcoming round of NDCs. While models have shortcomings, this type of analysis can contribute to reduce the concerns of countries in scaling up ambition, by teasing out effects and providing economic arguments – besides environmental ones – in support of more ambitious climate policies. |
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- Climate change policy - Climate impacts - Renewable energy - Economic growth |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
