GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7523 |
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"Assessing impacts of climate change on agricultural markets taking inter-annual yield variability in global crop yield projections into account" by Delzeit, Ruth, Julia Schneider and Florian Zabel Abstract The global impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is being felt through various channels, primarily due to increasing average and extreme temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (IPCC 2019). At the same time, agricultural productivity affects the four dimensions of food security: availability, accessibility, utilization, and stability (FAO 2020). Intercomparison projects using multiple climate and crop models have shown that different crops and countries are affected unevenly (e.g., Jägermeyr 2021), and the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity involve uncertainties (Müller et al. 2021). Economists have analyzed its long-term impacts on agricultural markets (e.g., Rosenzweig & Parry, 1994; Nelson et al., 2014; Calvin et al., 2020; Dumortier et al., 2021). Besides long-term climatic changes, the inter-annual variability of crop yields can impact regional production quantities. It is important to investigate whether agricultural markets are resilient enough to cope with increasing yield variability and which regions, connected through agricultural trade, are most vulnerable. In this study, we analyze the impact of yield changes under future climate conditions using CMIP6 projections by considering changes in the inter-annual variability of yields. To do so, we apply a well-established integrated modeling framework (Mauser et al., 2015; Delzeit et al., 2018; Zabel et al., 2019; Schneider et al., 2022) in which a mechanistic crop growth model and the CGE model DART-BIO are coupled. Preliminary results suggest that model linking leads to higher yields under climate change compared to no model linking, particularly for crops that experience relatively lower negative impacts from climate change, such as wheat and rapeseed. Hence, allowing for a reallocation of cropping patterns under future climate conditions mitigates yield reductions of climate change. |
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- Climate impacts - Land use - Model integration and coupling |
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Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
