GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7537 |
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"Achieving current account balance in long-run projections of the global economy in the dynamic GTAP model" by Gretton, Paul and Paul Gretton Abstract A dynamic version of the GTAP model known as GDyn-FS, builds on the earlier GDyn model to, amongst other things, project a stable long-run baseline with non-convex adjustment costs and forward looking consumers and producers. In a longer-term dynamic environment, however, without explicit modelling, current account balances across regions as a proportion of GDP can deviate beyond commonly regarded policy bounds of around 5 percent of GDP. This paper further develops the GDyn-FS model to ensure that current account balances as a proportion of GDP remain within a predetermined target range across projection periods reaching as far as 2100, while ensuring capital inflows are matched at a global level by capital outflows in each year. For this modelling, the reference (or target) values for current account balances across regions are drawn from historical experience and expectations regarding the course of economic development across countries or regions. The development provides a viable and policy focused method for the projection of long-run policy focused baselines inclusive of conventional foreign account constraints and the assessment of the progression of regional economies, and trade and investment between regions through time. Some key areas for further research are identified. |
| Resource Details (Export Citation) | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Sustainable development - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Economic development - Economic growth - Economic geography - Advances in quantitative methods - Baseline development - Dynamic modeling - Model extension/development - Global |
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Public Access  Paper (2.3 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
