GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7675 |
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"AFCFTA and introduction of carbon tax in Morocco on transport sector: Implications by a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis" by Rachid, El Mataoui, Nabil El Baouchari and Said Ait Faraji Abstract As of December 2025, Morocco is navigating the intersection of ambitious climate goals and AfCFTA-driven economic integration. Operational since 2021, the AfCFTA offers key opportunities for diversifying exports in manufacturing, agriculture, and phosphates, with potential 45% rises in intra-African trade and GDP, aiding redirection amid global tensions. Climate pressures add complexity: Morocco targets 45.5% GHG reduction by 2045 (18.3% unconditional), recently aiming for 53% by 2035 and neutrality by 2050. To counter the EU CBAM (effective Jan 2026 on fertilizers, steel, aluminum), the 2025 Finance Law introduces a domestic carbon tax from 2026. With the EU taking 67-70% of exports, CBAM affects only 3-4% (mainly fertilizers). The tax enables CBAM deductions, preserving EU access while spurring decarbonization. Trade-offs include higher costs for carbon-intensive sectors, risking competitiveness in AfCFTA markets, though revenue recycling and green investments can offset this. Studies such as Raouf et al. (2021), and Bouët et al. (2021) highlight AfCFTA’s trade creation benefits, especially in agri-food. El Hajoui et al. (2025) project 72%/65% export/import growth with Africa but modest GDP gains (~0.6%). Ait Faraji and Zaoujal (2025) show carbon tax with recycling boosts competitiveness and sustainability. This paper analyzes carbon taxation’s trade, environmental, and social effects under AfCFTA using a dynamic CGE model on 2023 SAM. Four simulation scenarios are conducted: (1) baseline scenario with current AFCFTA commitments, (2) introduction of carbon tax only, (3) combination of carbon tax and AFCFTA tariff reduction, and (4) adoption of various revenue recycling mechanisms (e.g., reduction of distortive taxes, labor cost subsidies) to test the welfare implications. These scenarios aim to capture both short-term adjustment effects and longer-term structural changes in trade patterns and emissions trajectories. |
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- Climate change policy - Environmental policies - Trade and the environment - Other data bases and data issues - Domestic policy analysis - Economic development - Transportation - Non-Tariff barriers - Dynamic modeling - Africa (North) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7675 (2.4 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 2/24/2026 2:07:14 PM
