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GTAP Resource #7708

"A Gridded CGE Analysis of Biofuel-Induced Land Use Change in Brazil: Spatially Explicit Impacts and the Mitigation Effects of Multi-cropping"
Authors: Wang, Zhan and Erwin Corong


Abstract
Biofuel-induced land use change (ILUC) often offsets its climate benefits. While multi-cropping can mitigate ILUC, existing national-level studies overlook spatial heterogeneity and subnational spillovers. To investigate the mitigation effect of multi-cropping at fine spatial scale, we employed GTAP-SIMPLE-G, a multi-scale computable general-equilibrium model that integrates a gridded land use and crop production system at 5-arcminute resolution into GTAP’s complete economic structure and bilateral trade flows. We further advanced GTAP-SIMPLE-G to endogenously capture soybean-corn multi-cropping in Brazil and natural land conversion with land supply elasticities estimated at gridded level. Results indicate that crop production exhibits obvious gridded patterns, primarily driven by the feasibility of multi-cropping and competition among crops. It also induces ILUC through cascading effects: primary land conversion from pasture to cropland to meet increased crop demand, while the demand for grazing further drives pasture expansion into carbon-rich natural forests, amplifying overall carbon loss. Crucially, greater multi-cropping feasibility significantly reduces cropland expansion. These findings highlight that enhancing intensification through multi-cropping is a vital strategy to decouple bioenergy production from deforestation while also minimizing environmental trade-offs.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Wang, Z. (4/9/2026)
Updated: Wang, Z. (4/9/2026)
Visits: 64
- Land use
- Renewable energy
- Domestic policy analysis
- Model extension/development
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- Partial and general equilibrium models
- South America


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