GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7750 |
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"Climate policy in a world with fragmented international trade: evidence from JRC-GEM-E3" by Van Der Vorst, Camille, Rafael Garaffa and Matthias Weitzel Abstract The international trade system of the 2010s was marked by high globalisation. Yet, it is unclear whether this system will persist in the years to come. Increasing political uncertainties, rising trade tensions and changes in industrial policy indicate a shift towards more fragmentation in the global economy. Within this context, JRC-GEM-E3, a global, multi-sectoral, multi-regional CGE model, is used to answer the following key questions: • Are there strong interactions between climate/energy policy and trade policy when looking at socioeconomic indicators such as GDP? • Does the degree of trade openness influence how countries reach their climate targets and their transition towards a 1.5°C- compatible pathway? Two trade policy environments are evaluated: a globalised system with current trade openness levels, and a fragmented system with increased trade barriers and more domestic production. These trade regimes are analysed in combination with the standard climate policy scenarios from the European Commission’s Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO): the Reference scenario and the 1.5°C scenario. The paper provides insights into the interaction between trade policy and climate targets, as well as into the importance of baseline assumptions for international trade when carrying out modelling exercises. Moreover, it contributes to the understanding of SSP scenarios, particularly SSP2 (Middle of the Road) and SSP3 (Regional Rivalry). The findings indicate that trade fragmentation may reduce emissions but does so inefficiently, causing larger GDP losses than emissions reductions. Fragmentation rather hampers deep decarbonisation because it encourages increased domestic production in regions that are less efficient and thus have more emission-intensive production. Also, energy trade flows are more shaped by climate policy, while manufacturing trade remains largely shaped by trade policies. |
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- Climate change policy - Renewable energy - Trade and the environment - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Global |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7750 (2.3 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/13/2026 1:32:49 PM
