GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7758 |
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"A Virus Without Borders: Potential Economic Impacts of African Swine Fever in the United States" Authors: Menezes, Tais and Amanda M. Countryman Abstract This paper develops a dynamic, economy-wide assessment of a hypothetical ASF outbreak in the U.S. in 2024, using a global, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. The contribution is motivated by two gaps in the existing animal disease-economics literature. First, CGE analyses of animal disease impacts have historically focused on foot-and-mouth disease and have often relied on static or single-country frameworks, where exports may be aggregated and region-specific trade adjustments are limited. Second, fully global, dynamic models that jointly capture medium-term macroeconomic adjustments and bilateral trade reallocations are limited, despite the inherently international nature of animal disease shocks. By applying a global, recursive dynamic CGE model to a U.S. ASF scenario, we quantify how production losses, export restrictions, and upstream commodity market effects propagate across sectors and regions over a five-year horizon, and how these impacts vary with outbreak severity and the speed of trade recovery. |
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- Agricultural policies - Non-Tariff barriers - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7758 (129.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
