GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7786 |
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"Destructive events, any size, anywhere: a tool for rapid assessment of regional and economy-wide effects" by Dixon, Peter, Michael Jerie, Dean Mustakinov, Maureen Rimmer, Nicholas Sheard, Florian Schiffmann and Glyn Wittwer Abstract Destructive events (such as acts of war and natural disasters) of any size can occur at any latitude/longitude. Anticipating direct economic impacts requires regional data at a highly granular level. Estimating broader effects requires modelling encompassing regional and industrial linkages. Informing decision makers requires a tool that can be operated immediately without modelling expertise and possibly in a secure environment. This paper describes a destructive events tool (DET) that meets these requirements. It consists of reduced-form equations that can be implemented rapidly by non-modellers. The reduced-form equations are derived by training a neural network with results from a very large number of computable general equilibrium simulations. The simulations draw on data for small rectangular areas (less than 1 sq km) to provide shocks for destructive events of different sizes in different locations. As an illustrative application we focus on Poland. Our methods could be applied for most countries. |
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- Natural disasters - Advances in quantitative methods - Europe (Eastern) |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  GTAP Resource 7786 (10.6 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/13/2026 1:32:49 PM
