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GTAP Resource #7796

"International Spillover Effects of China’s Potential Import Diversification Efforts under Trade Policy Uncertainties: a Gridded CGE Analysis "
Authors: Wang, Zhan and Wusheng Yu


Abstract
This study uses the recently developed GTAP-SIMPLE-G model featuring gridded crop production and land use systems in Brazil and the US to assess impacts of potential agricultural import diversification scenarios of China under trade policy uncertainties. We consider two main scenarios, with the first featuring unilateral MFN trade liberalization in China's livestock imports and the second characterized by China's unilateral trade liberalization in the same products for all trading partners but the US. We report simulation results capturing restructuring in Chinese agricultural import patterns across product and trading partner dimensions at national level, and the spatially heterogeneous impacts on the grid-level crop production and land use in Brazil and the US. Results also reveal the subnational spillover effects within the US and Brazil due to competition of agricultural inputs between crops and land use competitions between cropland, pastureland, and forestland, allowing for more comprehensive evaluation of localized agricultural impacts of the policy scenarios under trade uncertainties.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Yu, W. (4/14/2026)
Updated: Yu, W. (4/14/2026)
Visits: 41
- Land use
- Trade and the environment
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Model integration and coupling
- Asia (East)
- North America
- South America


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