GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7802 |
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"New US tariffs. Consequences for Central and Eastern Europe" by Hagemejer, Jan, Jan Jakub Michalek and Lukasz Matuszczak Abstract This paper examines the trade and welfare effects of the 2025–2026 US tariff regime on the European Union, with a particular focus on the Visegrad (V4) countries: Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia. Using the GTAP model, we simulate five scenarios spanning the full trajectory of US tariff policy, from the initially threatened reciprocal tariffs to the current uniform tariff. Despite substantial bilateral trade effects, the macroeconomic impact on V4 countries is modest, reflecting their limited direct trade exposure to the US. The primary vulnerability operates indirectly, through German-centered production networks. Under comprehensive global scenarios, V4 countries experience slight positive GDP effects driven by trade diversion from more heavily tariffed competitors. We also document a significant redirection of Chinese exports toward the EU. |
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- Preferential trading arrangements - Partial and general equilibrium models - Europe (Eastern) - European Union - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7802 (1.2 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/13/2026 1:32:49 PM
