GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7824 |
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"Global Chains, Regional Pains: Brazil’s Socio-Economic Exposure to U.S. Trade Policy" Authors: Simonato, Thiago, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maksym Chepeliev and Alla Golub Abstract This paper investigates how recent and potential changes in U.S. trade policy affect regional economic performance, labor markets, and income inequality across Brazil, using an integrated global-subnational framework to capture detailed spatial, sectoral, and socioeconomic impacts of international trade shocks. Empirical findings reveal substantial regional heterogeneity in economic outcomes, with pronounced vulnerabilities in parts of the North and Northeast, as well as significant losses in selected industrialized areas of the Southeast and South. Labor market responses are similarly uneven, characterized by sharp losses among both high-skill, trade-dependent occupations and more vulnerable informal and low-skill workers. Agriculture, particularly soybean production, emerges as a critical transmission channel, reflecting Brazil’s deep integration into China-led global value chains. Income and consumption impacts are regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. These results underscore the importance of accounting for subnational heterogeneity and global value chain linkages when designing compensatory and adjustment policies. Effective policy interventions thus require spatially targeted mechanisms to mitigate adverse regional and distributional effects while leveraging strategic sectoral opportunities arising from trade realignments. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Labor market issues - Multilateral trade negotiations - Supply chains - Model integration and coupling - Multi-scale and geospatial modeling - Global - South America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 7824 (4.5 MB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
