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GTAP Resource #7834

"Assessing the effects of education expansion policies in Brazil: Evidence from a CGE model with endogenous human capital"
Authors: Silva, Libania, Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior and Kênia Barreiro de Souza


Abstract
This paper examines the role of education in human capital formation and knowledge production in Brazil by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that explicitly links education investment, labor qualification and the production structure. The model features endogenous labor supply, with workers’ qualifications determined by years of schooling and relative wages across education levels, allowing human capital accumulation to emerge endogenously from education policies. Within this framework, we conducted counterfactual simulations inspired by the National Education Plan (PNE), considering an increase in public education investment to 10% of GDP and evaluating alternative allocation scenarios between the public and private education sectors across medium and long-term horizons. The main findings indicate that increased public investment in education generates positive effects on GDP, human capital accumulation, and research and development (R&D) in the medium and long term, whereas education expansion driven by subsidies to private education leads to negative impacts on economic growth. Despite these differences, all scenarios increase the supply of qualified workers, reinforcing the central role of education policy in strengthening human capital formation in Brazil.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Silva, L. (4/14/2026)
Updated: Silva, L. (4/14/2026)
Visits: 37
- Economic growth
- Education
- Advances in quantitative methods
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Dynamic modeling
- Model extension/development
- Software and modeling tools
- Econometric methods


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