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GTAP Resource #7844

"Global Context Matters: Spillovers from Denmark’s Agricultural Climate Policy under Alternative Global Pathways"
Authors: Clora, Francesco, Wusheng Yu, Laerke Jensbye, Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen and Peter Birch Sørensen


Abstract
Denmark will be the first country to introduce an emissions tax in agriculture, combined with a large-scale land retirement program. As a small open economy embedded in a globally integrated agri-food system, this raises concerns about international spillovers and carbon leakage. This paper uses a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify how Denmark’s agricultural climate policy affects production, trade, and emissions abroad. We systematically assess how these spillovers vary across alternative global socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and different levels of agricultural climate ambition outside Denmark. The analysis covers 45 scenarios combining Danish policy designs with SSPs and alternative global mitigation trajectories. Results highlight that the magnitude of spillovers depends critically on the global context, as both the environmental effectiveness and economic impacts of unilateral agricultural climate policy are sensitive to future global developments.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Clora, F. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Clora, F. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 22
- Climate change policy
- Trade and the environment
- Agricultural policies
- Dynamic modeling
- Europe (Northern)
- European Union
- Global


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