GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7853 |
|---|
|
"Domestic Buffers Against Global Shocks: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on China’s Provinces and the Role of Interprovincial Trade" Authors: Sun, Jiaze Abstract This paper embeds China's 2017 multi-regional input-output table into the GTAP 11 database and develops a global CGE model with 31 Chinese provinces embedded in it to systematically evaluate the regional and global economic effects of tariff shocks. The results show that, at the macro level, U.S. GDP declines markedly, whereas China demonstrates relatively strong resilience to external shocks by relying on the domestic circulation and diversified exports; third-party economies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN generally benefit from trade diversion. At the regional level, coastal export-oriented provinces face stronger downward pressure, while Northeast China and the central and western regions maintain growth by drawing on domestic demand and factor-cost advantages. Although U.S. tariff increases can provide short-run protection for some key U.S. industries, such as textiles and apparel and electronics manufacturing, they generate much larger negative effects in the long run. In China, related industries are hit in the short run, but many of them recover and expand over time as domestic supply chains adjust. Spatially, output in labor-intensive industries falls in most provinces and tends to shift toward border provinces. Technology-intensive industries experience relatively large shocks in export-oriented provinces, but exhibit stronger resilience in provinces with more complete industrial systems. Supply-chain-integrated industries, represented by transport equipment manufacturing, display comparatively strong resistance to shocks. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
- Domestic policy analysis - Economic geography - Model extension/development - Asia (East) - Global - North America |
| Attachments |
|---|
|
If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access No documents have been attached. Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
| Comments (0 posted) |
|---|
|
You must log in before entering comments.
No comments have been posted. |
Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
