GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7858 |
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"The Future of Global Trade Policy Cooperation. Long Run Scenario Analysis" Authors: Bekkers, Eddy, Hryhorii Kalachyhin and Lee Humphreys Abstract We present four stylized scenarios for the future of global trade policy cooperation: (i) Tensions, (ii) Fragmentation; (iii) Breakdown; (iv) Reform. The four scenarios include different trajectories of tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, operational trade costs, and digital trade policies. A quantitative trade model is employed to simulate the long run economic impacts on trade, output, production structure and welfare. The simulations show that there is a lot at stake. Whereas a breakdown of global trade policy cooperation can lead to double digit economic losses, reform scenarios can substantially raise global GDP and trade. The Tensions and Fragmentation scenarios would reduce global GDP very substantially by respectively more than 1% and 6% to 7%. For all economies Reform generates better outcomes than Tensions. There is a large variation in economic effects across regions and outcomes vary between regions across scenarios. |
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- Multilateral trade negotiations |
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Public Access  Paper GTAP Resource 7858 (52.0 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
