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GTAP Resource #7873

"Climate Change and Integrated Resource Management: A Multi-Scale Modeling Framework for Water and Food Security in Argentina"
Authors: Romero Gomez, Exequiel, Maria Laura Ojeda, Pablo Negri, Maria Priscila Ramos and Noelia Falczuk


Abstract
This paper presents the construction and an application of SIMPLE-G-AR, the first spatially explicit, gridded partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and water use calibrated for Argentina. Argentina is a major global food exporter whose agricultural sector is highly exposed to climate variability: only 5.2 percent of cropland relies on artificial irrigation, while recurrent droughts such as the 2022–2023 La Niña event caused export declines of 38 percent in primary products and 27 percent in agro-industrial manufactures. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires tools that connect biophysical heterogeneity across the national territory with economic outcomes at local, provincial, and national scales. We construct an original georeferenced database—SIMPLE-G-AR—integrating satellite-derived agricultural production (GAEZ), land use (NASA GFSAD30), water management (NASA LGRIP30), soil properties (SoilGrids), and climatic variables onto a regular 10 km × 10 km grid covering 31,049 cells across the Argentine territory. After applying a joint cropland–production filtering criterion, the analytical dataset comprises 8,264 agricultural cells concentrated in the Pampean core region and secondary producing areas. The paper describes the data construction methodology, the spatial filtering procedure, and the model calibration strategy, and outlines simulation scenarios aimed at quantifying the impacts of irrigation expansion and water infrastructure investments on crop production, land use, and prices under increasing climate variability.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Romero Gomez, E. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Romero Gomez, E. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 4
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Water availability
- Other data bases and data issues
- Agricultural policies
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- South America


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