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GTAP Resource #7883

"Ex-Post Validation of Trade-Mediated Market Leakage: Evidence from US Ethanol Mandates and Implications for Global CGE Modeling"
Authors: Villoria, Nelson B. and Yu Jisang


Abstract
Research Objectives: This study provides an ex-post assessment of the 2005 and 2007 US Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) on US agricultural export competitiveness and market power in corn markets. We pursue two primary objectives: first, to perform a model validation exercise by examining the extent to which earlier projections of changes in US exports of corn, soybeans, and wheat deviate from observed outcomes. These projections are representative of the main economic modeling frameworks used for the assessment of the indirect land-use effects of biofuels: the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-BIO) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) models. Second, we quantify the extent to which the 2005–2007 RFS mandates altered the ability of the United States to compensate for the welfare losses of ethanol policy through transfers from foreign consumers, often referred to as terms-of-trade gains.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version:
Created: Villoria, N. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Villoria, N. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 50
- Climate change policy
- Domestic policy analysis


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