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GTAP Resource #7886

"Subnational projections of poverty and income distribution to support climate risk assessments: A CGE-spatial microsimulation approach"
Authors: van Dijk, Michiel and Marijke Kuiper


Abstract
There is ample evidence that climate change conditions are increasingly worsening in Europe. There are strong indications that extreme climate events are becoming more frequent and intense. These extreme weather events have considerable impacts on human health, livelihoods and well-being, particularly for vulnerable populations such as low-income households, the elderly and children. The aim of this study is to undertake comprehensive climate hazard risk assessment for the EU by using an innovative approach that combines CGE model output with the Microsimulation of Income DynamicS (MIDS) model, which uses a spatial microsimulation approach to project future poverty at the subnational scale under different scenarios. These maps are combined with climate hazard maps to identify the number and profile of the most vulnerable people as well as high-risk hotspots. As such, the approach aims to bridge the scales between (a) climate impact and vulnerability research, which requires data with detailed spatial resolution, and (b) integrated assessment modelling, which mainly uses macro-level approaches to simulate change in socio-economic indicators.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: a
Created: van Dijk, M. (4/15/2026)
Updated: van Dijk, M. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 5
- Climate impacts
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Model integration and coupling
- Multi-scale and geospatial modeling
- European Union


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