GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #7889 |
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"Future changes in North American Trade agreements exacerbate climate impacts on food security in Mexico" Authors: Dominguez Viera, Marcos Esau, Daniel Mason-D'Croz and Mishel Unar Munguia Abstract This study assesses how climate change and potential modifications to North American trade agreements jointly affect food security in Mexico, with a focus on maize and beans. Using the MAGNET computable general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP 11 database, we simulate scenarios combining climate impacts with trade policy changes, including a 10% tariff on basic grain imports from the United States. The baseline follows the SSP2 “middle-of-the-road” pathway, updated with national projections for Mexico. Results indicate that climate change will reduce domestic production of maize and beans by approximately 7% and 2%, respectively, by 2050, primarily driven by declines in labor productivity. These shocks are expected to increase producer prices by about 7% for maize and 4% for beans, while deepening Mexico’s dependence on imports, particularly for animal feed. Trade restrictions on basic grains further exacerbate these effects, adding roughly one percentage point to price increases. Despite projected economic growth, Mexico remains structurally dependent on maize imports due to relatively low productivity gains compared to major trading partners. The findings suggest that trade protection measures, when combined with climate pressures, may undermine food affordability and increase fiscal pressure on agricultural support programs. Policy responses aimed at boosting productivity—such as expanding existing agricultural programs—could partially offset these adverse effects. Overall, the study highlights the importance of coordinated climate and trade policies to safeguard food security in Mexico over the coming decades. |
| Resource Details () | GTAP Keywords | ||||||||||||||||
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- Climate impacts - GTAP Data Base and extensions - Food prices and food security - Preferential trading arrangements - Dynamic modeling - Partial and general equilibrium models - North America |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource_Mexico climate & trade_V1 (910.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/30/2026 12:56:16 PM
