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GTAP Resource #7891

"Global Energy Transition and Critical Minerals Supply Chains in Africa"
Authors: van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Maksym Chepeliev


Abstract
Global Energy Transition and Critical Minerals Supply Chains in Africa

The Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP)—along with key partners—is developing an extended GTAP Data Base that breaks out a number of sectors linked to critical minerals—highlighting the full supply chain from extraction to refining to downstream uses. Understanding and modeling critical minerals is required to better understand the constraints and opportunities of the broad-based transition to a global economy that is less dependent on fossil energy, i.e., the transition to net-zero. The starting point for the new database is the GTAP Circular Economy Data Base, which has 99 sectors—up from 65 sectors of the standard GTAP Data Base. The GTAP Critical Mineral Data Base, or GTAP-CM, has a total of 134 sectors, of which 20 relate to mineral extraction, 21 relate to the refining of metals and minerals and production of intermediate products (e.g., steel, aluminum, etc.), and it includes new manufactured goods such as batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles.

After presenting some of the key features of GTAP-CM, the second part of the paper presents some preliminary projections for critical minerals and their upstream counterparts using a multi-regional and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—known as ENVISAGE. The business-as-usual (BaU) pathway till 2050 is calibrated to the ‘middle of the road’ shared socio-economic pathway (SSP2). Some of the key underlying assumptions under the BaU include electrification of industry, transport and residential energy use, improvements in energy efficiency and growing renewable generation of electricity, which will drive the demand for the energy transition minerals (ETMs). We then analyze additional policy scenarios that accelerate the transition to net-zero and industrial and trade policies that could shift the structure of production and trade along the entire supply chain.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: 1
Created: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2026)
Updated: van der Mensbrugghe, D. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 6
- Climate change policy
- Resources and circular economy
- GTAP Data Base and extensions
- Economic development
- Africa (Southern)


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  pptx File format GEA29CritMinerals.pptx  (1.7 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
       (Restricted to: V11 Data Base Subscriber, Data Base Contributor v11.0, GTAP 11 Satellite Data and Utilities Subscriber)

  pdf File format GEA29CritMinerals.pdf  (1.3 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
       (Restricted to: V11 Data Base Subscriber, Data Base Contributor v11.0, GTAP 11 Satellite Data and Utilities Subscriber)




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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM