GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"Climate change risks and opportunities for European agriculture" Authors: Calzadilla, Alvaro, Zein Khraizat and Olivier Dessens Abstract European agriculture is increasingly exposed to climate change through a range of biophysical and economic channels, with impacts varying substantially across regions. This study analyses climate change risks and opportunities for European agriculture using the subnational version of the UCL Environmental Global Applied General Equilibrium (ENGAGE) model, calibrated to a 2017 Social Accounting Matrix consistent with Eurostat’s NUTS-2 data and the FIGARO framework. The model explicitly represents 244 EU regions and disaggregated agricultural activities, allowing for a detailed assessment of regional heterogeneity. Climate impacts are introduced through two key mechanisms: heat-stress-induced reductions in labour productivity, estimated using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature methodology, and crop yield changes derived from ISIMIP projections. Scenarios are evaluated under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP?4.5 and RCP?8.5. Results indicate that climate change is likely to amplify regional divergence in agricultural performance across Europe. Southern and parts of central European regions experience pronounced production losses due to declining yields and intensified heat stress, while some northern regions benefit from warmer conditions, leading to higher production and exports. These asymmetric impacts stimulate interregional and international trade adjustments generating uneven welfare and income effects. Overall, the findings highlight both significant climate-induced risks and market opportunities, underscoring the value of subnational general equilibrium analysis for designing targeted, climate-resilient agricultural policies in Europe. |
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- Climate impacts - Trade and the environment - Agricultural policies - Food prices and food security - European Union - Global |
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If you have trouble accessing any of the attachments below due to disability, please contact the authors listed above.
Public Access  GTAP26 Calzadilla (paper) (257.3 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 4/15/2026 11:27:11 AM
