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GTAP Resource #7900

"How environmentally harmful are agricultural policies? Towards a model-based, cross-country and policy instrument typology of the climate impacts of agricultural support instruments "
Authors: Laborde, David and Elsa Olivetti


Abstract
With public budgets constrained and pressure mounting to accelerate the sustainability transition of agrifood systems, repurposing agricultural support has become a priority in research and policy. Yet reforms often lack a consistent basis for prioritization: impacts differ in magnitude, mechanisms, and distribution across countries. This paper develops an operational, model-based typology of climate-harmful agricultural support that captures heterogeneity across country–instrument combinations and emissions pathways. The typology is built from a systematic assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) effects using the global computable general equilibrium model MIRAGRODEP, calibrated with the latest AgIncentives information and a reworked GTAP 12 database. We run harmonized counterfactual simulations removing each instrument, one at a time, for each country to isolate marginal impacts while retaining general-equilibrium feedbacks. Additional scenarios assess coordinated multi-country reform by instrument category. To ensure comparability, model structure, baseline, horizon, and emissions scope are held constant across runs. Coverage spans product-specific and non-product-specific measures, input and output support, factor-based payments, and market access instruments. The resulting database supports a data-driven classification of environmentally harmful support using both expected impacts and their dispersion, drawing on decision-making under uncertainty. The typology translates model outputs into reform guidance by identifying instruments that are consistently damaging versus context-dependent, and by flagging where complementary measures are needed to prevent offsetting emissions shifts. Linking instrument design to emissions channels and cross-border spillovers informs prioritization, differentiation, and sequencing of repurposing strategies.


Resource Details () GTAP Keywords
Category: 2026 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented during the 29th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Kyoto, Japan)
Date: 2026
Version: 0
Created: Laborde, D. (4/15/2026)
Updated: Laborde, D. (4/15/2026)
Visits: 44
- Climate change policy
- Land use
- Agricultural policies
- Global


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