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GTAP Resource #1588

"Latin American Trade Horizons for East Asia"
by Lee, Hiro and David Roland-Holst

Trade between East Asia and Latin America has grown at unprecedented rates in recent years, and this trend is likely to continue if growth in China and other East Asian economies is sustainable. For example, China is becoming one of the largest consumers of Brazilian agricultural products and one of the largest markets for mining products from Andean countries. A number of Caribbean economies have benefited from Hong Kong and Korean textile investors seeking to unused MFA quotas. Japanese investors have sought to participate in American regional agreements by investing in lower wage members for exports to higher wage ones. While some countries have already seen their bilateral trade with China and the rest of East Asia increase sharply, other Latin American countries are actively pursuing new trans-Pacific trade relations. In this paper, we examine various free trade agreement (FTA) scenarios between East Asia and Latin America over the period 2000-2020 using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Among other issues, we evaluate how East Asia might shift certain downstream production capacity across the Pacific. In addition, we examine how some of the scenarios might lead to investment creation while others might lead to investment diversion.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2004 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 7th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington DC, USA
Date: 2004
Version: 1 (draft)
Created: Lee, H. (5/21/2004)
Updated: Ahmed, S. (9/13/2004)
Visits: 2,546
No keywords have been specified.

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Special Instructions
This is a very preliminary version of the paper to be presented at the Seventh Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, June 17-19. The authors will bring a revised version to the conference.

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