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GTAP Resource #1698

"Climate Change and Extreme Events: an Assessment of Economic Implications"
by Roson, Roberto, Francesco Pauli and Alvaro Calzadilla


Abstract
We use a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy to
assess the economic implications of higher vulnerability from extreme
meteorological events. In particular, we consider the impact of climate
change on ENSO/NAO cycles, and the implied variation on regional expected
damages, due to extreme events.
A statistical model is developed to test: (a) effects of temperature variation on ENSO an NAO cycles, (b) variations in expected regional damage for a series of events connected with climate change.
We analyze how local impacts propagate
inside the world economic structure, because of trade relationships
among regions. Three effects are taken into account: (1) negative
local shocks, determined by loss of resources, (2) changes in demand
structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (3) variations
in regional economic growth paths.
System-wide effects are illustrated by taking, as an example, some disastrous floods that occurred in Australia in 1998.
Dynamic effects are considered in a dynamic CGE model, in terms of higher or lower saving rates, and higher or lower variance of econommic growth.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
2005 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 8th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany
Date: 2005
Version:
Created: Roson, R. (4/27/2005)
Updated: Batta, G. (6/21/2005)
Visits: 1,701
No keywords have been specified.


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