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GTAP Resource #1971

"Growth Trends in the Developing World: Country Forecasts and Determinants"
by Ianchovichina, Elena and Pooja Kacker

The paper forecasts growth trends in the developing world, and for a large sample of countries, identifies the main forces likely to underpin growth in the period 2005-14. The paper presents real per capita GDP growth forecasts for all developing countries for the next ten year period. For 55 of these countries, representing all major world regions except Europe and Central Asia and accounting for close to 80% of the developing world’s GDP, the paper presents real per capita GDP growth forecasts that reflect the growth effects of various growth determinants assuming that these evolve following past trends.

The paper contributes to the literature a collection of econometrically derived country forecasts of real per capita GDP growth for the next decade and all developing countries in the world. Such forecasts are often an input into various types of economic policy work including macroeconomic and policy modeling exercises with computable general equilibrium models, and we could not find a set of growth forecasts of this kind in the literature. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the World Bank’s Unified publish country growth forecasts for only the next 3 to 5 years, while the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report presents growth forecasts at the regional, not the country level.

Our analysis, based on a cross country regression framework, suggests that for the average developing country the growth effects of continued improvements in public infrastructure will be larger than those of improved secondary school enrollment, trade openness, and financial deepening. The joint contribution of increases in these growth factors to average, annual real per capita GDP growth in the developing world in the next decade is estimated to be 1 percentage point. Half of this increase is due to the anticipated improvements in public infrastructure.

Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series 3775
Date: 2005
Created: Ianchovichina, E. (4/24/2006)
Updated: Ianchovichina, E. (11/28/2006)
Visits: 2,928
- Economic development
- North America

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