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GTAP Resource #2100

"Explaining Africa’s Export Performance – Taking a New Look "
by Mold, Andrew


Abstract
Africa’s export performance over recent decades is typically portrayed as being poor. This paper takes a new look at the record, using data on the volume rather than the value of African exports. When analysed in volume terms a quite different picture of African export performance emerges. According to UNCTAD data, between 1990-2002 for non-oil exporters, export volumes actually increased by over 130%. This impressive supply-side performance has not been properly documented. Previous studies have fixed too much attention to the value of African exports, something which, as primary commodity exporters, is largely beyond their control. The study uses estimates of volume of exports, available from UNCTAD, to explain African trade performance. Using a dynamic panel data analysis for 48 African countries over the period 1987-2002, the key determinants of export performance are ascertained. It is shown that there has been a highly significant negative relationship between fluctuations in prices and export volumes. This is contrary to standard economic theory, and shows that whereas in well-functioning markets exports are supposed to respond positively to changes in relative prices (i.e. higher prices lead to higher exports), in Africa the reverse relationship has held (i.e. lower prices have lead to higher exports). In the light of the regression results, other fundamental determinants of export performance are analysed, and the implications of the findings for policy makers are subsequently discussed.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2006 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 9th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Date:
Version:
Created: Mold, A. (5/2/2006)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/10/2006)
Visits: 1,899
No keywords have been specified.


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