GTAP Resources: Resource Display
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"EUruralis: a scenario study on Europe’s rural areas to support policy discussion" by Banse, Martin, Hans van Meijl, Andrzej Tabeau, Geert Woltjer, Annelies Balkema, Bas Eickhout and Elke Stehfest Abstract Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to changes in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. Expecting that major developments affect the rural areas in Europe, pro-active rural and agricultural policy has to be informed timely and in a targeted and tempting way. With the software package EURURALIS policy makers obtain insight in the future of rural Europe in the context of four scenarios (till 2030). The scenarios cover the uncertainties around the degree of liberalisation and the role of the governement. EUruralis deals with sustainability and provides indicators in the people, planet and profit dimensions. To perform the analysis a consistent modelling framework was constructed, consisting of an modified version of the macro-economic model GTAP and a more ecological-environmental based model framework (IMAGE). Furthermore, the GTAP model is extended with the demand and supply of biofuels. Developing regions such as Africa, Asia and South and Central America obtain the highest growth in total agricultural land use. Our study shows that the agricultural land use changes in EU 15 are relatively small in all scenarios compared with other countries and ranges between 2 and 15 percent. The liberalization and agricultural policies play important role in the agricultural land use in EU15. The macroeconomic factors are less important than for developing regions. For the EU15, the high GDP and population growth in the profit driven scenarios compensate the negative impact of reduction of domestic and border support for agriculture, and small changes in the agricultural land use are observed for these scenarios in EU15. The impact of the biofuel directive is limited for agricultural production in the EU, although high subsidies are required to meet the directive. |
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Public Access  2007 Conference Paper (51.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions no |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
