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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #2682

"The Growth of China and India: Implications for the Countries in the Middle East and North Africa"
by Ianchovichina, Elena, Maros Ivanic and Will Martin


Abstract
The growth of China and India affects the economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) through increases in opportunities for MENA to trade with China and India, increases in third-market export competition, and increases in third-market imports by China and India. The impact of faster growth in China and India on the MENA region is positive for welfare with the overwhelming majority of gains accrued through improvements in MENA region’s terms-of-trade associated with increases in world prices of energy products and of some agricultural products. These gains are larger when the likely improvements in the quality and variety of exports from China and India are factored in. Increased competition in third markets reduces the opportunities for MENA countries to expand exports of manufactures, and suggests that exports of manufactures might decline in some cases. The expansion of the energy sector and the contraction of manufacturing and services is a sign of a Dutch disease effect. All MENA countries will face increasing pressures to adjust their domestic and trade policies in order to improve competitiveness and cushion the effects on their non-energy sectors.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2008 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland
Date: 2008
Version:
Created: Ianchovichina, E. (4/14/2008)
Updated: Ianchovichina, E. (4/14/2008)
Visits: 1,409
- Trade in textiles and wearing apparel
- Economic growth
- Economic development
- Technological change
- Asia (East)
- Middle East
- Africa (North)


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