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GTAP Resource #2790

"Global economic effects of agricultural and trade policies: new Linkage Model results"
by Anderson, Kym, Ernesto Valenzuela and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

The impacts of removing distortions to agricultural incentives and barriers to other merchandise trade multilaterally and unilaterally are estimated using the LINKAGE model of the global economy and a modification to the p3 pre-release of Version 7 of the GTAP protection database for 2004 including new estimates of agricultural distortions from a recent World Bank project led by Kym Anderson. Results suggest the real value of agricultural output and exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes would rise in most developing country regions with such a move to free merchandise trade – despite the decline in international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. Using a poverty elasticity approach, the results also suggest poverty in developing countries would be reduced substantially. The Linkage Model’s terms of trade shocks generated from full global reform, reported here, also are being used as exogenous shocks to national micro-simulation models for a dozen county case studies, with the aim of generating more-detailed inequality and poverty analyses across various types of rural and urban households.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2008 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Helsinki, Finland
Date: 2008
Created: Anderson, K. (4/16/2008)
Updated: Valenzuela, E. (6/17/2008)
Visits: 2,691
- Agricultural policies
- Economic development
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions

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