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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #3436

"Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade"
by Reimer, Jeff and Man Li


Abstract
We examine how changes in yield variability affect the welfare of cereal grain and oilseed buyers and producers around the world. We simulate trade patterns and welfare for 21 countries with a Ricardian trade model that incorporates bilateral trade costs and crop yield distributions. The model shows that world trade volumes would need to increase substantially if crop yield variability were to rise. Net welfare effects, however, are moderate so long as countries do not resort to policies that inhibit trade, such as export restrictions or measures to promote self-sufficiency in crops. Low-income countries suffer the most from increases in yield variability, due to higher bilateral trade costs and lower-than-average productivity.



Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 38(2): 258-270
Date: 2009
Version:
Created: Reimer, J. (9/10/2010)
Updated: Reimer, J. (9/10/2010)
Visits: 868
- Agricultural policies
- Climate change policy
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions


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