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GTAP Resource #3532

"Anatomy of nonoil export growth in the Middle East and North Africa region"
by Ianchovichina, Elena, Julien Gourdon and Hiau Looi Kee

The growth response in developing MENA since 2000 has been modest in per capita terms compared to other developing regions. The capital-intensive oil sector has been and remains the primary vehicle for revenue and wealth creation for the oil exporters in MENA, while the spillover effects to the oil importing countries in the region and beyond have been significant. With the benefits from oil, however, come serious risks as MENA remains uncomfortably dependent on oil. Some of the risks of this dependence are well-understood and include macroeconomic volatility, Dutch disease, environmental degradation, political instability and conflict, and institutional weakness and corruption. Other risks are less obvious and have to do with a mismatch between the economy’s endowment base and its endowment use, and in the future, the threat of viable alternatives to oil. The GCC oil exporters have been taking steps to minimize the potential risks and enhance the potential benefits of oil-driven growth. However, the labor-abundant developing oil exporters have been far less successful than the GCC countries in dealing with some of the pitfalls of oil dependence. For this reason, the paper focuses on nonoil export growth, and poses a set of questions. How did nonoil exports evolve in the past decade? Do MENA countries face special market access issues? What are the major obstacles to MENA’s nonoil export growth? Are reforms implemented by countries addressing the major constraints? The answers to these questions help us understand the major factors constraining nonoil export growth and identify reform priorities. The paper employs various econometric techniques to estimate export and FDI potential, decompose nonoil export growth into intensive and extensive margins, and estimate tariff and non-tariff protection rates (ad-valorem equivalents) for agricultural goods, manufactures, oil and nonoil products by MENA country, and by trading partner.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Created: Ianchovichina, E. (4/12/2011)
Updated: Ianchovichina, E. (4/12/2011)
Visits: 2,535
- Trade in services
- Trade in textiles and wearing apparel
- Economic growth
- Middle East

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