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GTAP Resource #3622

"A Sensitivity Analysis to get Insights into Aggregation Problems within Model Linkages"
by De Jong, Beyhan, Kirsten Boysen-Urban and Martina Brockmeier

In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. The overall objective of this paper is a first step towards a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages. The paper constitutes one part of a research project that gradually involves more and more characteristics of model linkages and the corresponding transfer of results between models into the analysis. In this paper we focus on aggregation problems which arise due to the transfer of results based on differently aggregated Models. Different aggregation levels of joined models lead to other complications, if a top down approach to link model is applied. Here, a mapping of sectors and regions as well as mechanisms to ensure consistency between results is required. Important is the recognition of the so called "false competition". This phenomenon arises in international trade and its implication for model linkages are discussed thoroughly in the theoretical part of our paper. We employ the GTAP model to get additional insights into the problems arising within top down approaches of model linkages. In so doing, we utilize the GTAP model in a general (GE) and partial equilibrium (PE) version. Additionally, the PE and the GE version of GTAP are used with differing sector and/or country and region aggregation. We than apply both variants of the GTAP model to analyze a common scenario (e.g., agricultural trade liberalization) and aggregate both results to the same level. This gives us an indication by how much those results differ due to wrongly applied weights.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2011 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy
Date: 2011
Created: De Jong, B. (4/15/2011)
Updated: De Jong, B. (4/27/2011)
Visits: 2,480
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- European Union

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