GTAP Resources: Resource Display
|GTAP Resource #4120|
"African Trade Liberalization, Vulnerability and Pro-Poor Growth"
by Minor, Peter and Brian Mureverwi
A number of studies have identified differing impacts on developing countries, both positive and negative, resulting from agricultural trade liberalization (Hertel, Vanzeti etc.). Identifying and anticipating these trade liberalization impacts, especially on poor households is important for policy formulation and planning, pro-poor, sustainable growth. The primary objective of this paper is to identify the impacts on poor households of developing countries own trade liberalization on income, consumption, and food security. Specifically, we evaluate the potential impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on selected poor households in Southern Africa resulting from a proposed continent wide free trade area (CFTA) and eventually a continental wide customs union (CCU). Recent research analyzed the potential impacts of these agreements on aggregate "regional" or "national" income and welfare (Jensen and Sandray 2011 and Karingi and Mevel 2012). This paper focuses on the analysis of the potential impacts these trade agreements might have on poor, urban and rural, households in an effort to enlighten pro-poor growth polices and strategies. The focus here is on the vulnerability and impacts on poor households, not on trade policy itself: trade policy is taken as given with some basic assumptions . Our analysis is limited to selected countries in Southern Africa, as illustrations of varying impacts, but the methodology can be expanded to include detailed household breakdowns for any number of countries in the GTAP database, provided data is available .
The GTAP database will provide the basic data for this paper. The GTAP database and associated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (V8 2007) are well known and well documented (Hertel 1997). These data provide the basis of earlier analysis by Jensen and Sandray (2011) and Karingi and Mevel (2012). The research proposed in this project requires the further disaggregation of the single regi...
|Resource Details (Export Citation)||GTAP Keywords|
- Economic analysis of poverty
- Agricultural policies
- Food prices and food security
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Africa (East)
- Africa (Southern)
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