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GTAP Resources: Resource Display

GTAP Resource #4230

"Water Reliability, Irrigation, Biofuel Production, Land Use Changes, and Trade Nexus"
by Taheripour, Farzad, Thomas Hertel and Jing Liu


Abstract
The role of irrigation in agriculture is expected to gain greater promise over the coming decades. This will be fueled by increasing global demand for food and biofuels as well as irrigations-based adoption to higher temperatures and uncertain rainfall. The economic incentives to expand irrigation, biophysical factors on water availability for irrigation in some regions, and future changes in climate condition will force significant adjustment in current irrigation pattern and mix of crops produced across the world. These changes which affect the global distribution of crop production will eventually alter trade of these commodities which in turn will affect international trade and the future global economy.
For the first time in the history of economic modeling, this paper introduces water resources as an explicit input into a global general equilibrium modeling framework at a river basin level to examine economic and land use consequences of changes in crop yields due to climate change in the presence of water constraints and biofuel production. The current paper addresses important issues related to water resources and their interaction with agricultural activates, climate changes, choices between rainfed, and irrigation practices at a global scale.
The paper indicates that: 1) Future changes in the climate conditions could increase crop outputs at the global scale and improve profitability of irrigated crops. 2) Changes in water supply have the potential to reverse some positive impacts of climate change and limit crop outputs in China, India, South and South East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa; 3) Finally, biofuel production alters the mix of crops produced in favor of corn and oilseeds across the world, reallocating distribution of water among irrigated crops, and increasing incentives to adopt irrigation.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version:
Created: Taheripour, F. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Taheripour, F. (6/10/2013)
Visits: 1,719
- Bioenergy
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Land use
- Trade and the environment
- Water
- Technological change
- Other data bases and data issues
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions


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