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GTAP Resource #4241

"The economic effects of retirement age extension in China – A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis "
by Peng, Xiujian and Mai Yinhua


Abstract
China has experienced remarkable growth in the past three decades, while her growing labour force has played an important role in this extraordinary growth phase. However the situation will change. The growth of the working age population will stop at around 2015 and turn strongly negative afterwards. Meanwhile the proportion of the old population aged 65 and over will increase dramatically. As a result, the old-age dependency ratio which is defined as the ratio of elderly population to the working age population will increase. This poses a great threat to China’s pension system. Furthermore, China’s low retirement age compounds the ageing problem. To mitigate the negative effects of the increasing old-age dependency on economic growth, it is essential that labour force participation among the current working age population is adequate. Raising the official retirement age is one of the strategies to encourage labour force participation.

This paper investigates the effect of population ageing on labour force participation rates, and therefore on labour supply over the period of 2010 to 2030. Applying the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach, this paper also simulates the economic effects of retirement age extension on China's economic growth.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2013 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 16th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Shanghai, China
Date: 2013
Version:
Created: Peng, X. (4/15/2013)
Updated: Peng, X. (6/9/2013)
Visits: 1,826
- Demographics
- Economic growth
- Labor market issues
- Asia (East)


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