GTAP Resources: Resource Display
| GTAP Resource #4241 |
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"The economic effects of retirement age extension in China – A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis " by Peng, Xiujian and Mai Yinhua Abstract China has experienced remarkable growth in the past three decades, while her growing labour force has played an important role in this extraordinary growth phase. However the situation will change. The growth of the working age population will stop at around 2015 and turn strongly negative afterwards. Meanwhile the proportion of the old population aged 65 and over will increase dramatically. As a result, the old-age dependency ratio which is defined as the ratio of elderly population to the working age population will increase. This poses a great threat to China’s pension system. Furthermore, China’s low retirement age compounds the ageing problem. To mitigate the negative effects of the increasing old-age dependency on economic growth, it is essential that labour force participation among the current working age population is adequate. Raising the official retirement age is one of the strategies to encourage labour force participation. This paper investigates the effect of population ageing on labour force participation rates, and therefore on labour supply over the period of 2010 to 2030. Applying the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling approach, this paper also simulates the economic effects of retirement age extension on China's economic growth. |
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- Demographics - Economic growth - Labor market issues - Asia (East) |
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Public Access  GTAP Resource 4241 (611.4 KB) Replicated: 0 time(s)Restricted Access No documents have been attached. Special Instructions No instructions have been specified. |
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Last Modified: 9/15/2023 2:05:45 PM
