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GTAP Resource #4260

"2012 The Egyptian Trade Policy Strategy of Development and The Global Trading System in The WTO Era"
by Bahloul, Ahmed Qadry

This paper examines the causal relationship between trade and development for Egypt as a developing country in the era of WTO .i.e. ELG hypothesis versus GLE hypothesis. Economic theory does not provide a sound basis to judge whether GDP causes exports or exports cause GDP. The empirical time series econometric methods such as unit root and coointegration tests, VAR, DVAR, and VECM models in addition to Granger causality tests are utilized to investigate the nature of this causality. The results indicated that, GLE is validated in the case of Egypt during the era of WTO. The real trade balance and the ratio of real exports to real imports deteriorated due to increasing the foreign trade ratio and the index of openness during 1995-2010 .There is a real need to reengineering the relationship between trade and development policies in Egypt to maximize the trade benefits for development.

Keywords: Egypt, WTO, exports, economic development, Stationary, Unit root, Cointegration, VAR model, DVAR model, VECM model, Granger causality tests.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: GTAP Application
Status: Published
By/In: Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 22, No.1, March 2012.
Date: 2012
Version: 2
Created: Bahloul, A. (5/1/2013)
Updated: Batta, G. (5/1/2013)
Visits: 2,431
- Economic development
- Africa (North)
- Middle East

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