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GTAP Resource #4441

"Could Free Trade Alleviate Effects of Climate Change: A Global Analysis with Emphasis on Morocco and Turkey"
by Ouraich, Ismail, Hasan Dudu, Wally Tyner and Erol Çakmak

This paper examines the interaction of globalization through trade liberalization and climate change, globally with a special focus on Morocco and Turkey. We use the standard GTAP model, which is a global general equilibrium model, to investigate trade liberalization welfare impacts under climate change, and its ability to provide mitigation and/or adaptation to potential losses. Our hypothesis was that trade liberalization would at least partially offset potential welfare losses induced by negative productivity shocks on agriculture. Our findings suggest that the world as whole benefits the more trade is liberalized. At the regional level, most regions under trade liberalization do not experience large enough welfare gains to offset welfare losses triggered by negative productivity impacts in agriculture. For Morocco, tariff elimination under all scenarios on average induces additional welfare loss compared with the climate change only scenario. Despite the gains in allocative efficiency accruing from trade liberalization, the latter are generally low and are offset by the substantial negative contribution of the terms of trade and investment-savings effects. For Turkey, trade liberalization induces net welfare gains under all scenarios. Nonetheless, these gains are not large enough to offset totally the initial loss under climate change. These results are primarily driven by the combined effect of allocative efficiency and terms of trade effects.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Ouraich, I. (4/14/2014)
Updated: Ouraich, I. (7/3/2014)
Visits: 2,253
- Climate change policy
- Climate impacts
- Trade and the environment
- Agricultural policies
- Multilateral trade negotiations
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Africa (North)
- Middle East

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  File format GTAP Resource 4441  (2.2 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format GTAP Resource 4441_ppt  (1.2 MB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)
  File format  (816.7 KB)   Replicated: 0 time(s)

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Comments (1 posted)
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Posted by: Ouraich, Ismail   4/14/2014 9:58:00 PM
The zip file '' contains the necessary files for running the simulations carried out for the paper. It requires an installation of RunGTAP software to run the simulations.