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GTAP Resource #4490

"The Impact of Cropland Productivity on Crop Prices, Deforestation, and Carbon Sequestration Costs"
by Choi, Sukwon, Brent Sohngen, Sara Ohrel and Jefferson Cole

It is widely suggested that forest sector activities could offer cost effective and interim approaches to curb global greenhouse gas emissions. Current estimates of the potential forest sequestration range between 1 and 4 billion tons of CO2 per year for the next half century: however, future land use projections are highly uncertain. One element of this uncertainty is that future productivity and technology progress in the agricultural and forestry sectors could alter the demand for land, and there is great uncertainty about this future demand. Many studies have recently suggested, for example, that crop prices will rise due to a slowing of technological change in the agricultural sector and continued increases in global population and income. These factors could substantially increase the costs of carbon sequestration in forests.

This study examines whether earlier estimates of the costs of carbon sequestration in forests were too low, in particular because they were too optimistic about future crop productivity growth or future demand growth. We also examine the implications of carbon sequestration policies on food commodity prices. To accomplish this, we build a new model based on an earlier global dynamic forestry model. The model incorporate a model of the agricultural sector. The forest sector optimizes the age class structure and the management intensity of managed forests. Additional land can be added to either the agricultural or the forestry sector by converting currently inaccessible forests to productive use. The agricultural sector optimizes inputs and output in six sectors, including three crop sectors (grain, rice, and other), and two livestock sectors (ruminant and non-ruminant). The model optimally shifts land between the two uses. We utilize GTAP data for the agricultural sector including AEZ specific land use and land price data.

The policy analysis in this study considers alternative projections of crop productivity, income grow...

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2014 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 17th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Dakar, Senegal
Date: 2014
Created: Cole, J. (4/15/2014)
Updated: Choi, S. (6/16/2014)
Visits: 1,168
- Land use
- Technological change
- Food prices and food security
- The GTAP Data Base and extensions

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