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GTAP Resource #5252

"Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios"
by Ciuriak, Dan, Ali Dadkhah and Jingliang Xiao

This note develops four alternative estimates of the trade-related impacts of the United Kingdom seceding from the European Union. We contrast an exit that re-sets the UK’s relationship with the rest of the EU to a WTO-rules most favoured nation basis (“Brexit”) with a negotiated change in the UK’s status that largely preserves the UK’s integration with the rest of the EU at a level similar to that of the European Free Trade Association (“Brefta”). While these two scenarios model the EU disaggregated into sixteen regions, a third scenario shows the implications for outcomes of modelling the Brexit scenario treating the rest of the EU (EU27) on an aggregated basis, where we introduce a “single market” effect that reflects EU27 preference for EU27 products. A fourth scenario introduces a UK free trade agreement with the United States in the context of the TTIP not going ahead, which reflects the emerging political economy of trans-Atlantic trade relations.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Created: Dadkhah, A. (4/13/2017)
Updated: Ciuriak, D. (6/13/2017)
Visits: 2,716
- Baseline development
- Calibration and parameter estimation
- Dynamic modeling
- Non-Tariff barriers
- Non-Tariff measures in services
- Preferential trading arrangements
- Trade in services
- Other data bases and data issues
- European Union
- North America

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