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GTAP Resource #5301

"Optimal timber management decisions in the face of future uncertainties"
by Sohngen, Brent, Alla Golub, Yongyang Cai, Thomas Hertel and John Kim


Abstract
This paper develops a dynamic-stochastic approach to modeling climate change impacts in forestry. We start by constructing a global dynamic model of timber markets based on Sohngen et al. (1999, 2001) and Tian et al. (2016). We then use a Min-Max Regret (MMR) approach (Lempert et al. 2006, Cai and Sanstad 2016) to incorporate important elements of uncertainty into the dynamic global model of forests. The MMR approach calculates a set of optimal intertemporal decisions in forestry across several states of nature by minimizing the maximum regret associated with making the "wrong" decision. Regrets are the welfare consequences of making decisions consistent with a given state of nature (future climate condition) while in fact the world is under a different state of nature. The MMR approach allows us to determine a set of forest management decisions that minimize the potential adverse welfare consequences of assuming one climate future but experiencing another.


Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Version: 1
Created: Sohngen, B. (4/14/2017)
Updated: Sohngen, B. (4/14/2017)
Visits: 485
- Climate impacts
- Land use


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