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GTAP Resource #5379

"Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Migration and Food Security: CGE Analyses for the World’s 103 Regions under the 2oC scenario "
by Ishinabe, Nagisa and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

Climate change is expected to induce potentially significant human migration and displacement. This study quantifies climate-induced voluntary migration flows in a 2oC warmer world using a CGE-based global migration model. The model captures (1) agricultural land losses due to sea level rise, (2) agricultural productivity changes due to temperature increase, (3) heat effects on labor productivity, and (4) disease impacts on human health. 235 countries/regions of the world are covered in the analysis. The results show economic-induced voluntary migration due to the economic impact of climate change of 235,000 migrant workers with family members, and 107,500 without, which is much smaller than existing estimates. The study reveals that economic-induced migration opportunities are very limited when climate impacts simultaneously hit the world, given climate impacts are predominantly negative.

To supplement discussions on potential migration needs, poverty measures and food price changes are also reported. 36 million people are expected to fall into poverty due to deteriorating environmental and economic conditions. West Africa is identified to be particularly vulnerable to climate change with projected 6.5 million additional people sinking into poverty without having regional migration opportunities. Food prices are expected to increase substantially reaching the levels during the 2008-2011 food crisis, even without food trade restrictions. The international community should consider examining the interplay between food trade policy and migration in order to develop integrated approaches for future climate-induced migration and displacement.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Created: Ishinabe, N. (4/15/2017)
Updated: Ishinabe, N. (6/7/2017)
Visits: 1,813
- Climate impacts
- Migration
- Food prices and food security

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