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GTAP Resource #5386

by Sahin, Sebnem, Alexander Golub, Elena Golub, Bijon Kumer Mitra, Anil Markandya, Badri Narayanan and Farzad Taheripour

South Asia faces serious challenges in water availability, which are expected to increase in the coming years as populations and demand for food grow, the competition for water from non-agricultural sectors increases, and climate change aggravates the water stress in some river basins. Even without taking account of climate change the amount of water available for irrigation is estimated to drop by between 20-40 percent in several important river basins in the region. The additional impact of climate change is variable and could be positive in some basins but add to the scarcity in others. Also, sea level rise and water-related extreme events are predicted to have an adverse effect on South Asian economies.

This paper separates the implications of the growing scarcity of water in South Asia for economic and demographic reasons from those related to climate change. Furthermore, it evaluates specific measures that could be taken to addresses the economic and physical constraints against sustainable water management in the region. The aim is to develop a comprehensive analytical basis to support South Asia’s decision-makers in promoting policies that achieve higher levels of water efficiency, facilitate economic growth in the presence of water scarcity, and promote climate resilience to help farmers to maintain their income in the face of severe climate conditions.

The following simulations are developed using the model: BAU describes a baseline to 2050 for South Asian economies. Scenario 1 analyzes the impacts of improvements in water use efficiency in irrigation on the agricultural sector and the economy more widely. Scenario 2 reports the economy-wide impacts of climate-induced water stress. Scenario 3 examines the energy-water-climate linkages, specifically from water for electricity. Scenario 4 estimates the economy-wide impacts of sea level rise and more frequent extreme events in the South Asian region.

Resource Details (Export Citation) GTAP Keywords
Category: 2017 Conference Paper
Status: Published
By/In: Presented at the 20th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, West Lafayette, IN, USA
Date: 2017
Created: Golub, A. (4/17/2017)
Updated: Golub, A. (4/17/2017)
Visits: 1,856
- Water availability
- Economic growth
- Asia (South-Central)

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